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Undergraduate Research Paper

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14583/28

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Adviser: search.filters.advisor.Arbizo, Joseph L.

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    Spatio-temporal analysis of animal rabies cases in Negros Occidental from 2012-2018
    Asorio, Leslie S.; Clarito, Thea Joy A.; Dolorosa, Rex Victor V.; Meracap, Mitzi N.; Napulan, Andrea Marie N.; Recabar, James Matthew V.; Rodriguez, Sael D.; Velasco, Princess Monic Q. (Division of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Visayas, 2019-06)
    Rabies is particularly dangerous and deadly disease that infects domestic and wild animals and is transmissible to humans. The province of Negros Occidental has been experiencing an uneasy situation on both human and animal rabies in recent years. It posted a rising trend on the number of human deaths due to rabies infection from 2012 to 2018, and has ranked number one among the provinces in Western Visayas with the highest number of positive animal rabies cases in 2017 to 2018. Animal rabies, particularly of canine and feline type, is considered to be a serious threat to public health thus all prevention and control efforts in order to reduce the cases of human rabies are stemming from the identification of high-risk barangays based on the occurrence of canine or feline rabies cases. In this research, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed to determine the high-risk municipalities and temporal pattern of animal rabies cases in Negros Occidental from 2012 to 2018. Spatial analysis identified the major cities such as Bacolod City and Bago City and their surrounding municipalities to be of high risk to animal rabies. The epicenter of cases is slowly shifting towards the central part of the province in subsequent years. Twenty-six (26) space-time clusters of animal rabies cases in Negros Occidental were found to have “intensifying”, “consecutive”, “oscillating”, and “sporadic” time trends. Two clusters classified as “new” hotspots were identified in the central part of the province.
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    Time series forecasting model of dengue incidence in the Province of Iloilo with meteorological factors as external regressors
    Acebuque, Jason Clement S.; Cuachon, Anna Nicole O.; Deala, Carl Laurence L.; Esmenos, Arian Claudine F.; Galupo, Bealou Patrishe D.; Jubelag, Carmelli S.; Legayada, Precious Jemimah D.; Namuag, Maulene Mae J.; Palmon, Gladys A.; Salvador, June Luis C.; Sampani, Gian Justin P.; Tolentino, Jimel V. (Division of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Visayas, 2017-06)
    The province of Iloilo posted the highest increase of dengue cases in the Western Visayas region in 2016, despite the noted 2.2% decrease of clinically confirmed cases nationwide. The province has placed adequate attention on technical elements, specifically on the outbreak preparedness, yet it is important to give additional efforts to strengthen the surveillance and information system in the province. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with external regressor (SARIMAX) model was formulated to forecast the future monthly number of dengue cases in Iloilo province using the meteorological parameters as the explanatory variables. It was found that only the rainfall variable significantly affects the number of dengue cases in Iloilo province, hence, the only variable included in the SARIMAX model as the external regressor. The final forecasting model SARIMAX(3,l,l)(l,0,0)12 is capable of representing the number of dengue cases in subsequent months with relative accuracy. The forecasts of dengue incidence from the final model are imperative for assessing future healthcare and public health programs in the province of Iloilo.